Method, sources and receipts

What this is

An independent ranking of every 2026 big-league manager by the in-game decisions they made, scored by how much each one moved the team's chance of winning. It covers all 2,429 regular-season games and 47,980 graded decisions.

Method

Data. Play-by-play for every 2026 regular-season game, pulled from the MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com).
Win expectancy. We built our own win-expectancy table from that same 2026 play-by-play, keyed by inning, half, outs, base state and score difference (capped at ±6). Sparse states fall back to a coarser table.
Decisions graded. Pitching changes (the new pitcher's first batter), hook timing (the starter left in to face the order a 3rd+ time), pinch hitters, steal attempts, sacrifice bunts and intentional walks. Pinch runners are logged but not scored.
Score. Each decision gets the change in the team's win probability over the plate appearance it affected (WPA). Net wins = the sum. 1.00 WPA ≈ one win.
Grades are relative to the 30-team mean (z-score bands: A ≥ +1 SD, B ≥ +0.33, C ±0.33, D > −1, F ≤ −1).

Limits: why this is provisional

Results capture outcomes, which mix the decision with player execution and luck. A good call can turn out badly.
Three clubs changed managers mid-season (Philadelphia, New York Mets, Boston). Their rows combine managers and are marked "mixed".
We don't see injuries, rest plans or front-office orders, which often drive these calls.
The win-expectancy table is built from one season, so rare game states are noisier.
Totals reconcile exactly: each team's net wins equals the sum of its rows in the public ledger.

Sources and receipts

Play-by-play, schedules, rosters and manager names: MLB Stats API, © MLB Advanced Media, L.P. (terms). Each decision links to its game on MLB.com Gameday.
The full decision ledger (47,980 rows): decision_ledger_2026.csv. Per-team ledgers are on each team page.
Rankings, grades and the win-expectancy model are Dugout Receipts' own analysis, not official statistics.

Independence

Dugout Receipts is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Major League Baseball, its clubs or the MLB Players Association. We use no league or team logos, marks or official colors. Team names appear in plain text to identify them.